FROM THE AUSTRALIAN WEF AUSTRALIANO THERE ARE SOME NEW PERSPECTIVES FOR A NEW TURN OF WORLD CONSULTATIONS ON TRADE.
[This analysis comes from the current issue of Bridges Weekly Trade
Digest (Vol. 4, Number 35, 19 September, 2000)]
Questions abounded at last week's World Economic Forum (WEF) in
Melbourne, Australia, regarding the launching of a new round of
global
trade talks. While a general consensus is emerging among OECD
countries
that a new round of talks is necessary, agreement on the content of
negotiations, when they should occur and where they should be held
remains far from certain. WTO Deputy Director-General Andrew Stoler
has
said that he is optimistic about the prospects of a new round
beginning "sometime within the next twelve months". In terms of
content, according to Stoler, a great deal of bilateral progress has
already been made in the areas of agriculture and services -- in
which
WTO Members have been negotiating since January 2000 -- but what
remains is translating these developments into a multilateral
agreement. Thus far, Qatar has been the only country to volunteer to
host the next Ministerial.
Another hurdle to launching a new round lies in the credibility of
the
globalisation process more generally. Street protests in Melbourne
drew
attention once again to many sectors' dissatisfaction with the
present
trend towards increasing global economic integration. The protests
highlighted the positions put forward by many non-governmental
organisations (NGOs) that the WTO is poorly equipped to deal
effectively with the social and environmental implications of the WTO
Agreements. Many of the NGOs and social activists converging on
Melbourne, such as Vandana Shiva, Director of the Research Foundation
for Science, Technology and Natural Resource Policy, argue that
alternative models of globalisation that place basic human needs
above
corporate profitability are necessary to ensure proper development.
Some developing countries, Indonesia for example, used the WEF as an
opportunity to decry the promises of global free trade. Luhut
Pandjaitan, Indonesia's Trade Minister, attacked the current rules-
based trade regime, arguing that those countries which liberalise too
rapidly risk incurring unmanageable trade deficits, poor balance of
payments and less growth. According to Pandjaitan, "The new round
will
result in additional obligations and commitments at a time when
Indonesia is still absorbing the full impact of the existing
agreement
on its economy...There is a need for consolidation before embarking
on
a new round of negotiations. In fact the round itself should be
conditional and entirely focused on meeting the aspirations of
developing countries."
While market access is an highly legitimate concern for developing
countries, Deputy Director-General Stoler said the likelihood of a
new
round based "exclusively on the interests of developing countries
would
be a little bit doubtful."
These comments coincide with WTO Director-General Mike Moore's push
to
have the organisation shift its focus in his second year of office
from "confidence-building" to "coalition-building" in order to build
momentum for the launch of a new round of trade negotiations. "By
building coalitions I mean that people see that there's enough there
moving in the right direction on agriculture and services, that
there's
enough there for them that their needs in regards to implementation
are
recognised, which builds a coalition for more trade liberalisation,"
he
said in a press interview.
Moore admits that completing the agriculture and services
negotiations
outside the context of a general round will be difficult, due in part
to the fact that developing countries feel as though they have little
to gain from a limited negotiating agenda. Nevertheless, "things are
moving," he said. "In agriculture and services and on other issues
such
as investment and electronic commerce, solid progress has been made."
20/09/2000