FROM THE AUSTRALIAN WEF AUSTRALIANO THERE ARE SOME NEW PERSPECTIVES FOR A NEW TURN OF WORLD CONSULTATIONS ON TRADE.

[This analysis comes from the current issue of Bridges Weekly Trade Digest (Vol. 4, Number 35, 19 September, 2000)] Questions abounded at last week's World Economic Forum (WEF) in Melbourne, Australia, regarding the launching of a new round of global trade talks. While a general consensus is emerging among OECD countries that a new round of talks is necessary, agreement on the content of negotiations, when they should occur and where they should be held remains far from certain. WTO Deputy Director-General Andrew Stoler has said that he is optimistic about the prospects of a new round beginning "sometime within the next twelve months". In terms of content, according to Stoler, a great deal of bilateral progress has already been made in the areas of agriculture and services -- in which WTO Members have been negotiating since January 2000 -- but what remains is translating these developments into a multilateral agreement. Thus far, Qatar has been the only country to volunteer to host the next Ministerial. Another hurdle to launching a new round lies in the credibility of the globalisation process more generally. Street protests in Melbourne drew attention once again to many sectors' dissatisfaction with the present trend towards increasing global economic integration. The protests highlighted the positions put forward by many non-governmental organisations (NGOs) that the WTO is poorly equipped to deal effectively with the social and environmental implications of the WTO Agreements. Many of the NGOs and social activists converging on Melbourne, such as Vandana Shiva, Director of the Research Foundation for Science, Technology and Natural Resource Policy, argue that alternative models of globalisation that place basic human needs above corporate profitability are necessary to ensure proper development. Some developing countries, Indonesia for example, used the WEF as an opportunity to decry the promises of global free trade. Luhut Pandjaitan, Indonesia's Trade Minister, attacked the current rules- based trade regime, arguing that those countries which liberalise too rapidly risk incurring unmanageable trade deficits, poor balance of payments and less growth. According to Pandjaitan, "The new round will result in additional obligations and commitments at a time when Indonesia is still absorbing the full impact of the existing agreement on its economy...There is a need for consolidation before embarking on a new round of negotiations. In fact the round itself should be conditional and entirely focused on meeting the aspirations of developing countries." While market access is an highly legitimate concern for developing countries, Deputy Director-General Stoler said the likelihood of a new round based "exclusively on the interests of developing countries would be a little bit doubtful." These comments coincide with WTO Director-General Mike Moore's push to have the organisation shift its focus in his second year of office from "confidence-building" to "coalition-building" in order to build momentum for the launch of a new round of trade negotiations. "By building coalitions I mean that people see that there's enough there moving in the right direction on agriculture and services, that there's enough there for them that their needs in regards to implementation are recognised, which builds a coalition for more trade liberalisation," he said in a press interview. Moore admits that completing the agriculture and services negotiations outside the context of a general round will be difficult, due in part to the fact that developing countries feel as though they have little to gain from a limited negotiating agenda. Nevertheless, "things are moving," he said. "In agriculture and services and on other issues such as investment and electronic commerce, solid progress has been made." 20/09/2000